In the Bureau of Labor Statistics footwear data, shoes are cheapest in December and January and most expensive in October. Averaged over 2015 to 2025, the all-footwear price index sat 1.54% below its trend in December and 1.30% above it in October. For a pair whose trend price is $100, that is roughly $98.46 in December against $101.30 in October, a gap of $2.84. Women’s shoes have the widest swing of the three groups, and men’s the narrowest.
How we measure the pattern
BLS publishes most shoe indexes in an unadjusted version, which shows prices as recorded each month, and often in a seasonally adjusted version with the usual calendar pattern taken out. The BLS Handbook of Methods says seasonal adjustment removes the estimated effect of changes that normally occur at the same time every year, and it names climate, production cycles, model changeovers, holidays and sales as examples.
We do not use the BLS adjusted series to find the pattern. The handbook explains that a series is adjusted only if it passes statistical tests and has an economic reason to be seasonal, and that series not selected use the unadjusted data. In the BLS files we read, some footwear series were published with the adjusted values equal to the unadjusted ones in some years, which would hide the calendar pattern for those years.
Instead we work from the unadjusted index alone:
- For each month, we compute a centered 12-month moving average, which smooths away the calendar pattern and leaves the trend. It uses the six months before and the six months after, with the two end months counted at half weight.
- We divide the month’s index by that average. The result shows how far the month sat above or below its own trend.
- We average those ratios by calendar month over 2015 to 2025, then shift all twelve so they average zero.
A figure of −1.54% for December means the all-footwear index was, on average, 1.54% below its trend in the Decembers of those years. The cheapest month page shows the same numbers as a chart, and our method page gives the formula.
BLS collected no CPI prices from October 1 to November 12, 2025, during the federal shutdown, so there is no October 2025 value. Any month whose 13-month window touches that gap is skipped. That leaves 11 years for January to March and 10 years for April to December.
The pattern, month by month
| Month | All footwear | Men’s | Women’s |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | −1.30% | −0.40% | −1.89% |
| February | +0.23% | +0.78% | +0.25% |
| March | +0.97% | +0.65% | +1.37% |
| April | +0.68% | +0.46% | +0.77% |
| May | +0.10% | +0.11% | +0.13% |
| June | −0.56% | −0.48% | −0.43% |
| July | −1.08% | −0.72% | −1.41% |
| August | −0.01% | +0.08% | −0.00% |
| September | +1.07% | +0.67% | +1.53% |
| October | +1.30% | +0.61% | +1.55% |
| November | +0.13% | +0.07% | −0.16% |
| December | −1.54% | −1.83% | −1.70% |
Three low points stand out. December and January form the deepest dip of the year. July is a second, smaller low. Prices then climb in September and October, and again from February to April.
Who sees the biggest swing
Women’s shoes. The low is January at −1.89% and the high is October at +1.55%, a spread of 3.44 points. On a $100 trend price, that is about $98.11 in January against $101.55 in October.
Men’s shoes. The spread is 2.61 points, from −1.83% in December to +0.78% in February. On a $100 pair, the difference is about $2.61. Men’s shoes are the one group whose high month is in late winter, though September (+0.67%) and March (+0.65%) are close behind.
Boys’ and girls’ shoes. The low is January at −1.45% and the high is October at +1.75%, a spread of 3.20 points. Back-to-school months are not the low point for children’s shoes in this data. August sits slightly below trend at −0.21%, and prices are above trend in September and October. The complete children’s series is on shoes for boys and girls.
The all-footwear index, which combines the three groups, has a spread of 2.84 points. You can see its history on the all footwear page.
Why a calendar pattern shows up at all
BLS does not publish a reason for each month’s seasonal factor, so we do not assign one. The handbook does explain one collection rule tied to the seasons. Most apparel falls in what BLS calls seasonal item groups, where twice the usual number of quotes is kept and each quote has a partner priced half a year later, so that one covers the cold-weather season and the other the warm-weather season. When a seasonal item is off the shelf, BLS estimates its price from similar items, and it swaps in a permanent substitute only when stores carry a full seasonal assortment.
The handbook lists sales among the routine causes of seasonal movement. The data show lows after the winter holidays and in midsummer and highs in early fall and early spring. Beyond that we cannot say from BLS sources why a particular month is high or low.
BLS itself estimates seasonal factors with X-13ARIMA-SEATS software. Its seasonal adjustment page says the factors are updated with the release of January data in February, and each update revises the previous 5 years. Our simpler moving-average method is not the BLS method, but it estimates the same kind of calendar effect, using only the published unadjusted numbers.
What this does not promise
The pattern is a long-run average of a national index, and several limits follow from that.
- It is small next to normal price differences. A 2.84-point swing is a few dollars on a typical pair. Differences between stores, brands and individual markdowns can be far larger and are not measured by this index.
- It is an average across years. In any single year the month-to-month moves can be larger, smaller or out of order. The figures above describe 2015 to 2025, not a forecast.
- It is national. BLS prices most items in most areas only every other month. The national seasonal pattern says nothing about any one store, city or website.
- Trend can outweigh season. If shoe prices are rising 4% a year, waiting ten months for a 1% to 2% seasonal dip may not pay. The men’s shoe index was up 4.5% in the 12 months to September 2026 and the women’s up 3.9%, so in that stretch the yearly trend was larger than the seasonal swing for both groups.
The CPI FAQ notes that some users find seasonally adjusted data make it easier to see the underlying trend in short-term price changes, and that unadjusted data are more appropriate for escalation, such as adjusting a contract for inflation. For a shopper, the unadjusted index is the closer match to the price on the shelf, which is why our month table is built from it.
The short version for planning
If you have flexibility, the BLS record from 2015 to 2025 points to December and January as the months when shoe prices were most often below their trend, with July as a second low. September and October were most often above trend, and for men’s shoes February as well. The effect is about 3.4 points from peak to trough for women’s shoes, 3.2 for children’s and 2.6 for men’s. Treat it as a mild tilt in the averages, not a rule a store follows. The women’s shoe page shows how large that tilt looks against the long-run trend.